Scenarios
Every question worth asking about money is a conditional. Each of these states an antecedent and propagates it through your actual obligations — with the transmission path written down, so you can disagree with the mechanism rather than just distrusting the number.
How it reaches your ledger
- General prices +6%Every historical spending day is resampled at 6% more, because that is what repeating your own behavior would now cost.
What each part contributes
A single shock, so the whole move is attributable to it. Combined scenarios split this out — worth looking at, because the parts do not simply add.
- Baseline ending
- $16,992
- Under this premise
- $16,606
- Bad case
- $15,497
- Trouble typically starts
- not in any path
5 scenarios · 900 paths each plus ablations · run July 26, 2026