Scenarios

Every question worth asking about money is a conditional. Each of these states an antecedent and propagates it through your actual obligations — with the transmission path written down, so you can disagree with the mechanism rather than just distrusting the number.

How it reaches your ledger

  • General prices +6%Every historical spending day is resampled at 6% more, because that is what repeating your own behavior would now cost.

What each part contributes

A single shock, so the whole move is attributable to it. Combined scenarios split this out — worth looking at, because the parts do not simply add.

Baseline ending
$16,992
Under this premise
$16,606
Bad case
$15,497
Trouble typically starts
not in any path

5 scenarios · 900 paths each plus ablations · run July 26, 2026