Open source · Append-only ledger · It grades its own forecasts
Every money question you have is an if.
If I keep spending like this. If the market does that. If I take the job. Conditional reads what you actually spend, finds what you are locked into, and simulates the answer a thousand times over — then checks its own work against what really happened.
c. 3300 BCEThe ledger
c. 630 BCECurrency
c. 4000 BCEGold
1171Sovereign bonds
c. 1750 BCE onwardConsumer credit
12th century onwardMortgages1602Shares
c. 3000 BCEGrain
1859Oil
c. 3000 BCELand
c. 1343 / 1688Insurance
1397 / 1472Banks1976 / 1993Index funds & ETFsArtifacts pulled live from the Met, Cleveland, Rijksmuseum, Smithsonian, and the Library of Congress. Each one opens a study of where that instrument came from and every time it has failed.
Stays above $500 in 100% of simulated futures
1,200 paths · 90 days · 14 obligations found · 658 rows
$3,150
available right now
$13,686
all accounts, card included
$16,983
$16k to $18k in 9 of 10
0%
never, in any path
Live output from a generated sample household, through the same code paths a real ledger runs.
Why a single trend line is always wrong
Committed
−$2,694 / month
Same amount, same day. Known in advance, so the forecast schedules it rather than guessing.
Metered
−$196 / month
Arrives on schedule but the amount moves with the season. Forecast from your own history for that month.
Chosen
$2,143 / month
No schedule and no fixed amount. This is the part that gets simulated, and the only part you can move.
Regress one line through all three and you get a number describing none of them. Rent does not drift. A January heating bill is not a January-shaped July bill, it is roughly double. Groceries have no schedule at all but do have a weekday rhythm and a long right tail. Model each the way it behaves and the forecast starts holding up.
Found without being told
Nobody entered these. The detector derived them from the ledger.
| Merchant | Rhythm | Schedule | Amount | Per month | Next |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedar Ridge Property | every 30d · 8× | 83% reliable | fixed | −$1,811 | Jul 30 |
| Northbank Auto Loan | every 31d · 8× | 82% reliable | fixed | −$382 | Aug 14 |
| Statewide Mutual | every 31d · 8× | 74% reliable | fixed | −$210 | Aug 20 |
| Lakeline Energy | every 30d · 8× | 83% reliable | varies ±24% | −$135 | Aug 20 |
| Relay Mobile | every 30d · 8× | 76% reliable | fixed | −$95 | Aug 12 |
| Fiberline | every 31d · 8× | 82% reliable | fixed | −$89 | Aug 7 |
| City Water Works | every 30d · 8× | 83% reliable | varies ±14% | −$62 | Aug 6 |
| Ironworks Gym | every 31d · 8× | 82% reliable | fixed | −$43 | Aug 4 |
The conditional mood, computed
You supply the if. The engine propagates it through obligations you actually have.
Inflation picks back up
If prices start climbing at 6% again
- 90-day median
- −$383
- Shortfall risk
- +0%
- Runway
- unchanged
A hard winter
If heating costs run 35% above normal
- 90-day median
- −$403
- Shortfall risk
- +0%
- Runway
- unchanged
Income stops
If I lost my job tomorrow
- 90-day median
- −$16,505
- Shortfall risk
- +48%
- Runway
- unchanged
The outside world, live
Pulled from public APIs at request time, not a cached screenshot.
S&P 500
Stooq
Relevant to a household only through what it does to a position you actually hold. Here it feeds the scenario engine, not a ticker widget.
No data returned
Stooq returned no usable observations
Stooq
USD to EUR
European Central Bank via Frankfurter
0.86
+0.8% y/y
For anyone earning in one currency and spending in another, this is a contractual line item, not a curiosity.
Treasury average interest rate
U.S. Department of the Treasury
3.79%
+12.3% y/y
What risk-free money earns. Sets the floor for whether your savings are keeping up or quietly losing ground.
CPI, all items
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED
The general price level. Rises here scale the whole discretionary block, because last year's grocery days no longer cost what they cost.
No data returned
FRED (St. Louis Fed) needs FRED_API_KEY in your environment. It is free to obtain — see the sources screen for the link.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED
6 of 18 catalogued series are ready in this deployment. 6 providers need no key at all, which is why a fresh clone has usable market data immediately.
Proof, not assertion
It grades its own forecasts, and it has failed twice in public.
Walk-forward validation ships as a screen, not a footnote. The model is placed at points in the past, handed only what was knowable then, and scored against what actually happened. It has already caught a synthetic-data defect and a systematic optimistic lean traced to credit card payments being misclassified as internal transfers. Both are written up in the roadmap rather than quietly patched.
See the scorecard| Horizon | Band held | Claims | Width | Median off by |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 days | 0% | 90% | 7% | $1.1k |
| 30 days | 50% | 90% | 11% | $564 |
| 60 days | 75% | 90% | 16% | $886 |
| 90 days | 75% | 90% | 20% | $1.4k |
Coverage above 90% means the bands are hedging. Below means they are overconfident. Narrow is only a virtue while coverage holds.
Hope through historical study
Every instrument you can be exposed to was invented, and every one has failed somewhere.
That is not a doom argument — it is the opposite. If the arrangement you live inside was built by people at a particular moment for a particular reason, then it is a choice rather than a law of nature. It can be understood. And understanding is the only thing that has ever helped anyone act early instead of late. The future is not certain. Markets fail. Study is the difference between being surprised and being ready.
Explore all 31 asset types and 85 documented collapses — four thousand years, and the mechanisms rhyme.
Built for specific situations
A tool that claims to help everyone helps nobody in particular.
The money is there, the timing is not
Why am I short in the third week when the month works on paper?
Your income and obligations balance over a month but collide inside it. This is the problem the corridor was built for.
You do not get paid the same amount every month
How do I plan when I do not know what is coming in?
Freelance, hourly, commission, seasonal. Tools that assume a salary are useless here, and that is most of them.
How long could you actually last
If the income stopped tomorrow, how many months do I have?
Not the rule-of-thumb answer. The one computed from your actual obligations, on their actual dates.
The bill that doubles every January
How much worse is winter going to be this year?
Utilities are scheduled like rent but priced like a commodity. Most tools treat them as one or the other, and both are wrong.
You have a view about the economy
If I am right about this, what does it do to me specifically?
Not whether the market goes up. Whether your life changes if it does.
Why you should believe any of this
How do I know the forecast is not just confident nonsense?
Because it grades itself in public, and it has already failed twice in ways you can read about.
Everything above is live. Go break it.
Eight months of a generated household. Move the spend control and watch the odds move, or drop in your own CSV export.